Melanoma The Most Dangerous Skin Cancer — and the Most Visible
Melanoma is far less common than other skin cancers but causes most skin-cancer deaths. The upside: it's usually on the surface where you can see it — and when caught early, it's highly curable.
~104K
New cases/yr (US)
94%
5-yr survival (all stages)
~8K
Deaths/yr
>99%
5-yr survival if caught early
The basics
What Melanoma Is Dr. Rob + SourcesDr. Rob on MelanomaWhy catching it early is everything
Melanoma starts in melanocytes — the cells that give skin its pigment. It can arise in an existing mole or on normal skin. Because it's on the surface, it's one of the few cancers you can literally watch for.
Depth is destiny. A thin, early melanoma removed promptly has >99% 5-year survival. Once it grows deeper and spreads, survival drops fast. That's why a changing spot should never wait.
Melanoma is a cancer of the pigment-producing cells of the skin. It accounts for only about 1% of skin cancers but the large majority of skin-cancer deaths because it can spread if not caught early. It can appear anywhere — including areas with little sun exposure, and on the soles, palms, and under nails (especially in people with darker skin).
The defining feature is change: a new spot, or an existing mole that changes in size, shape, or color. Recognizing that change early is what makes melanoma so survivable.
1%
of all skin cancers
…yet melanoma causes the majority of skin-cancer deaths.
>99%
survival, caught early
5-year survival when the tumor is thin and localized — early detection is everything.
👁️
You can see it
It’s on the surface — self-exams genuinely work.
☀️
UV-driven
Most cases trace to UV from sun or tanning beds — largely preventable.
Risk factors
Who's Most at Risk
A risk factor raises the odds — it doesn't guarantee the disease. Many people with risk factors never develop melanoma, and some with none do. The point is to know your risk so you can act on what's modifiable.
☀️ UV exposure
Sun and tanning beds — especially blistering sunburns.
Indoor tanning sharply increases risk, especially when used young.
Early detection
Screening & Early Detection Dr. Rob + SourcesDr. Rob on the ABCDE RuleHow to read a mole
Use ABCDE: Asymmetry, Border irregularity, Color variation, Diameter over ~6mm, and Evolving — the last is the most important. Anything new, changing, or that simply looks different from your other spots (the 'ugly duckling') deserves a look.
No formal population screening is recommended, but high-risk people benefit from regular dermatologist skin exams plus monthly self-checks. When in doubt, get it checked — a quick biopsy beats a late diagnosis.
There's no formal population-wide screening program, so the front line is your own eyes — plus a dermatologist for those at higher risk. Melanoma's visibility is its weakness; use it.
✓ABCDE: Asymmetry, Border, Color, Diameter (>6mm), Evolving — change is the biggest red flag.
✓Monthly self-exams: check all skin, including scalp, soles, palms, and under nails.
✓High-risk people: regular dermatologist skin checks (prior melanoma, many atypical moles, strong family history).
✓'Ugly duckling': any spot that looks different from your others warrants evaluation.
Prevention plays
What Moves the Needle
Most melanoma is driven by UV — which makes it largely preventable with consistent sun-smart habits.
🧴 Use sunscreen
Broad-spectrum SPF 30+, reapplied regularly.
🕶️ Cover up
Hats, UV-protective clothing, and sunglasses.
⛱️ Seek shade
Especially 10am–4pm when UV peaks.
🚫 No tanning beds
Indoor tanning sharply raises melanoma risk.
👁️ Check your skin
Monthly self-exams catch changes early.
🩺 See a dermatologist
Yearly if you're high-risk.
By the numbers · US
Melanoma at a Glance
~104K
New cases/yr
94%
5-yr survival (all stages)
~8K
Deaths/yr
📈 Rising
Incidence trending up over decades
Sources: American Cancer Society, NCI SEER, CDC, AAD skin-cancer guidance.
National · by state · NCI/CDC, 2018–2022
Melanoma by State — All, Men & Women
Age-adjusted melanoma incidence per 100,000 for every state, split by sex. Sorted by the all-races rate; Arizona is highlighted. Men's rates run far higher than women's almost everywhere — and Arizona ranks #6 all-races, #3 among men.
⇅ Click any column header to sort (try the Men column).
State⇅
All /100k⇅
Men /100k⇅
Women /100k⇅
United States
23.1
29.1
18.7
Utah
42.7
52.1
35.0
Minnesota
38.8
43.9
35.5
Vermont
35.1
41.1
30.7
Iowa
32.8
36.9
30.5
Idaho
32.4
39.7
26.2
Arizona ★
32.3
42.4
23.8
South Dakota
30.3
34.5
27.3
North Dakota
30.0
30.7
30.8
Kentucky
28.8
34.1
25.4
Nebraska
28.7
32.6
26.2
Kansas
28.4
33.9
24.5
New Hampshire
28.1
34.8
23.1
North Carolina
28.0
36.1
22.3
Maine
27.5
31.1
25.1
Ohio
27.2
32.6
23.5
Montana
27.1
32.7
22.5
Wyoming
27.0
31.3
23.3
Florida
26.2
34.3
19.7
Washington
25.8
30.7
22.3
Delaware
25.3
33.0
19.3
Wisconsin
25.3
29.7
22.2
West Virginia
25.0
29.1
22.2
Georgia
25.0
32.3
19.8
Maryland
25.0
32.6
19.5
Hawaii
24.9
33.9
17.0
Arkansas
24.7
31.5
19.7
Oregon
24.3
28.9
20.7
Illinois
23.8
28.7
20.5
California
23.4
30.3
18.2
Nevada
22.6
28.5
17.6
South Carolina
22.4
28.9
17.6
Colorado
22.1
27.6
17.9
Alabama
21.0
25.4
18.1
Oklahoma
21.0
27.2
16.5
Virginia
21.0
27.3
16.3
Michigan
20.8
24.9
17.9
New Jersey
20.7
26.8
16.2
Missouri
20.4
25.2
17.0
Indiana
20.4
24.4
17.7
Tennessee
20.3
25.9
16.1
Pennsylvania
20.0
24.6
16.7
Rhode Island
19.3
24.2
15.9
Mississippi
19.2
25.3
14.9
Connecticut
19.2
24.6
15.2
Louisiana
18.7
25.3
13.7
New York
17.8
22.4
14.7
New Mexico
17.5
22.8
13.3
Alaska
16.2
18.3
14.3
Massachusetts
15.6
19.6
12.7
Texas
15.4
20.7
11.4
District of Columbia
9.8
14.2
6.7
Source: NCI/CDC State Cancer Profiles, melanoma of the skin, age-adjusted per 100,000, all stages, 2018–2022. "All" includes Hispanic. U.S. row pinned for reference.
Deep dive · Arizona · NCI/CDC registry, 2018–2022
Arizona Melanoma — Who It Actually Hits
Dr. Rob on reading the breakdown
National averages hide the real targets
A single state number tells you almost nothing about where to aim prevention. Split Arizona by sex, age, race, and county and the picture sharpens fast: older men in a handful of counties drive most of the burden — but the under-detected groups matter just as much.
These are age-adjusted incidence rates per 100,000, all stages, 2018–2022, from the NCI/CDC registry (statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov) — the authoritative source, not a clinic estimate.
National averages hide who carries the risk. Here is Arizona melanoma broken out by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and county — the cut a health plan needs to decide where prevention dollars actually go.
32.3
AZ all-races /100k · #6 of 51 (US 23.1)
42.4
AZ men /100k · #3 in the nation
95.4
AZ age 50+ /100k
2,946
New AZ cases / year
♂️ By Sex — men carry nearly double the risk
Why men?
Exposure + later detection
Arizona men are diagnosed at 42.4 per 100,000 — third-highest of any state — versus 23.8 for women. More lifetime sun exposure, less sunscreen use, and fewer skin checks add up. Men over 50 are the single highest-yield group for a screening push.
Men · 1,862/yr
42.4 /100k
Women · 1,084/yr
23.8 /100k
U.S. comparison: men 29.1 · women 18.7 per 100,000. Arizona exceeds the nation in both.
⌛ By Age — risk explodes after 50
Cumulative UV
Damage adds up
Arizona's 50+ rate is 95.4 per 100,000 — about 11× the under-50 rate of 8.4. Melanoma is largely a delayed bill for decades of sun. It also means the Medicare-aged and near-retirement members are where the cases concentrate.
Where Arizona's ~2,946 annual cases fall (share of new cases by age band):
And the rate climbs steeply with age (Arizona per 100,000, all races; U.S. in parentheses):
65 and older
146.4 (US 96.9)
50 and older
95.4 (US 65.2)
50–64 (band)
~48 (derived)
Under 50
8.4 (US 7.2)
National shape, decade by decade (SEER)
The curve, in detail
Median age at diagnosis: 67
Nearly half of all melanoma is diagnosed between 55 and 74, and 57% at 65 or older. It climbs through middle age, peaks at 65–74, then tapers only because fewer people are alive to be diagnosed — not because risk falls. A small but real tail appears young (20–44 = ~11%), often tied to tanning beds.
<20
0.3%
20–34
3.8%
35–44
6.9%
45–54
11.3%
55–64
21.0%
65–74
27.8% ← peak
75–84
20.5%
85+
8.5%
AZ bands derived from NCI registry cut-points (<50, <65, 65+; counts sum to 2,946). Decade distribution: SEER 21, 2019–2023, all races, both sexes — median age at diagnosis 67.
🧬 By Race & Ethnicity — and the equity signal
Lower rate ≠ lower stakes
Detection gap
Non-Hispanic white Arizonans carry the highest rate (38.7), but watch the Hispanic line: 6.3 per 100,000 — above the U.S. Hispanic rate of 4.8. Melanoma in skin of color is rarer but caught later and is more often fatal. For a Medicaid plan with a large Hispanic and tribal membership, that's the detection gap to close.
⇅ Click any column header to sort.
Group (Arizona)⇅
AZ rate /100k⇅
AZ cases/yr⇅
U.S. rate⇅
White (Non-Hispanic)
38.7
2,492
30.4
Hispanic (any race) ▲
6.3
104
4.8
Amer. Indian / AK Native (NH)
3.5
9
9.1
Asian / Pacific Islander (NH)
1.7
5
1.2
Black (Non-Hispanic)
0
≤3
0.9
All races combined
32.3
2,946
23.1
Gender within each group — and a telling reversal
⇅ Click any column header to sort.
Group (Arizona)⇅
Men /100k⇅
Women /100k⇅
M:F ratio⇅
White (Non-Hispanic)
49.8
29.0
1.72×
Hispanic (any race) ↺
6.3
6.6
0.95×
All races combined
42.4
23.8
1.78×
⚕️ Dr. Rob’s Equity Read
Two numbers should change how Banner targets prevention
First, the headline rate hides the real UV burden. The all-races number (32.3) is dragged down by Arizona’s large Hispanic and tribal populations. Among non-Hispanic whites it’s 38.7 — and among white men, 49.8 per 100,000. That older-white-male cohort is where the volume lives, and it’s the highest-yield target for a screening push.
Second, watch the gender reversal. Among white Arizonans, men outpace women nearly 2-to-1. But among Hispanics it flips — women (6.6) edge out men (6.3), and the Hispanic rate sits above the U.S. Hispanic average. Skin-of-color melanoma is rarer but diagnosed later and more often fatal, and it shows up in younger people and on hidden sites (soles, palms, under nails).
So the plan has two jobs that pull in different directions: aggressively screen older white men where the cases concentrate, and close the detection gap for Hispanic and tribal members — especially younger women — where the cancer hides until it’s advanced. One campaign can’t do both; a smart BUFC program runs two tracks.
📍 By County — where the cases are
Two counties, most of the cases
Where to run a pilot
Maricopa and Pima together account for roughly 2,290 of Arizona's ~2,946 annual cases (~78%). Highest rates show up in Yavapai and Pima; highest volume is Maricopa. Reach two metros and you touch most of the risk.
⇅ Click any column header to sort.
County⇅
Type⇅
Rate /100k⇅
Cases/yr⇅
Yavapai
Urban
36.8
174
Pima
Urban
35.7
524
Maricopa
Urban
34.4
1,763
Pinal
Urban
31.1
188
Cochise
Urban
30.9
59
La Paz
Rural
29.5
10
Coconino
Urban
22.9
34
Mohave
Urban
22.5
90
Gila
Rural
19.6
21
Navajo
Rural
16.4
24
Apache
Rural
12.2
10
Yuma
Urban
9.9
27
Graham & Santa Cruz appear in full county data; Greenlee suppressed (≤3 cases). All figures age-adjusted, all races, 2018–2022.
Source: NCI/CDC State Cancer Profiles (statecancerprofiles.cancer.gov), melanoma of the skin, age-adjusted incidence per 100,000, 2018–2022. Rates by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and Arizona county.
It's on the surface — so look.
Melanoma is one of the few cancers you can spot with your own eyes. Learn the ABCDEs, check your skin monthly, protect yourself from UV, and get any changing spot evaluated promptly.
Dr. Rob + Sources